Uncertainty
Sep. 12th, 2006 05:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dr_tectonicJust went to a neat seminar about project management and estimating how much time a project will take.
The interesting thing about it is that the hardest part of managing uncertainty is getting people to admit, even to themselves, that things are as likely to come in above the mean as they are under the mean. Once you've overcome that psychological barrier, thinking rationally about it is pretty easy, folks are just really loathe to acknowledge the possibility -- the likelihood, even -- that things will go wrong.
The interesting thing about it is that the hardest part of managing uncertainty is getting people to admit, even to themselves, that things are as likely to come in above the mean as they are under the mean. Once you've overcome that psychological barrier, thinking rationally about it is pretty easy, folks are just really loathe to acknowledge the possibility -- the likelihood, even -- that things will go wrong.
no subject
Date: 2006-09-13 01:41 pm (UTC)Sadly, I am about the only person who understands the psychological benefits of this approach, not to mention how useful a little extra time and money can be when things go wrong.
And they do go wrong.
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Date: 2006-09-13 05:08 pm (UTC)People are so unwilling to think about that. I think you're the only one there who's not just mired in denial.